This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and go out and enjoy the remainder of the day when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we ought to have a large edge this week if we put in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on these titles they’ve not heard and will only be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card that Sunday and I think we’ll see a good deal of people making errors in money games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I love to stack it into my cash games and lock in those points. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we could observe multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points together with both of these guys. Let us let everybody else make the mistakes and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, and then we just have to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was put up for Bermudez a triumph. He has a very slick submission game and when this fight goes to the floor I think he will pick up advance points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his profession and even if he’s winning on the toes, he still shoots for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we can see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get the 10x+ we’re searching for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he will easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last couple of years but I believe that he has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, but I think you want some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and I will hit the right combo. It’s hard to pick one favourite fade this week but I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he will use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that seems great on DraftKings because wrestling stands up things. However, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and I really don’t see him getting a entry. However, I think we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
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