BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

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This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I like the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
Cash Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m not loving this slate for money games, and that I was just going to decide on the principal occasion stack for my cash game play of this week. However, I can see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and once I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young creates a great money game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has since I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a top floor because this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he has 100-point upside into a conclusion, and that I also think he can finish this fight. However, I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of the week rather than my GPP playwith. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only real way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I believe he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 things, but that is why he is my GPP drama of the week rather than my cash game play of this week. In cash, I wish to lock in higher flooring and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many things he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a profit if he dropped a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just need to hit on our other areas. We don’t need 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I do not expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog play of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to remain standing for as long as it continues. Personally, I see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is the case, then I think Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a fair number of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or conclusion, he will probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3additional salary. That’s why he is my underdog play of this week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have picked him as my fade every time he’s fought so that I will roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by obtaining a win. He does not strike a high enough pace to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter once I roster them and together with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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