A new 338Canada projection has the Tories safely in majority territory


Since Ottawa was hit by the SNC-Lavalin storm in early February, a shocking number of opinion polls are conducted. Data nerds like myself are not whining, but so many polls taken when public opinion is in regular creates a decent amount of sound –that can lead to significant confusion for voters.
Case in point: polls in recent alone have ranged from 13 stage CPC prospects (Angus Reid, L??ger) into a 4 stage LPC lead (Sophisticated Research), along with other polling companies somewhere in the middle (namely: Ipsos, Nanos and Campaign Research). Evidently, not all these surveys can be right in the same time period, but it is by taking them all together and careful considering the regional breakdowns which we may aspire to decrease the sound and see the real data.
The entire list of federal polls are seen on this site.
To figure the following 338 projection, polls are closely weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down each region of the country. The 338 model also includes demographic data in the Canadian census in its simulations to connect the movement of public comment per electoral district. Data of elections is also taken consideration in the model. Details of this 338 methodology and past performance of this model can be found here.
Clients should know that this isn’t a forecast of the outcome of the next election, but rather a projection of where the significant parties stand based on current statistics. When/if the information varies, the projection corrects itself.
With 169 days until the national election, here is your 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019.

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